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Ever since Kent Hughes was named the general manager of the Montreal Canadiens in January 2022, he has made a concerted effort to improve not only the number of draft picks but also the development system in which the organization’s prospects are expected to flourish.
The current NHL lineup is yet to really reap the reward of the revamped program, but according to Hockey Prospecting, the future among Canadiens prospects is rather bright.
The rankings are put together by Byron Bader, who you may know as the analyst that Habs fans get irate at when he suggests Juraj Slafkovsky beat the odds following a rather difficult start to the young Slovak’s NHL career. Truth be told, there cannot be bias in Bader’s analysis, as it uses historical numbers to project the potential of various prospects. That’s not to say his analysis is beyond reproach, but outliers such as Slafkovsky are a perfectly normal part of data analysis.
NHL Team Prospect Pool Strength Rankings
You can read more about the ranking methodology here, but it’s important to remember players must have participated in 100 or fewer games to be considered, which means Slafkovsky does not qualify.
Top 5 Star is the average star probability of the top 5 prospects, while Top 5 NHLer is the average NHLer probability of the top 5 prospects. Depth Stars have a 10% chance of becoming a star, Depth NHLers have a 30% chance of becoming an NHLer.
Top 5 prospects considered: Lane Hutson, David Reinbacher, Justin Barron, Joshua Roy, Sean Farrell.
Montreal Canadiens Rankings
According to Bader, the Habs are seventh in the Top 5 Star rank, sixth in the Top 5 NHLer rank, first in the Depth Stars rank, and first in the Depth NHLer rank.
Once all the ranks are tallied, Montreal tied with the Chicago Blackhawks among skater prospects, trailing only the Anaheim Ducks for first in the league.
This lines up with our detailed analysis, especially among defensive prospects. The Habs have an embarrassment of riches on the blue line, headlined by phenom Lane Hutson. Bader isn’t quite as impressed with the state of the goaltending prospects, though he does suggest Jacob Fowler’s rookie season in the NCAA was rather encouraging.
The depth of their prospect pool is the main factor anchoring the Canadiens in second place, the same rank as they were given last season. There is a clear lack of elite talent, particularly up front, but there are good options in every position This points to the logic of the Canadiens drafting a forward with their first-round pick this summer.
Unless they win the Draft Lottery, the odds of picking a game-changing talent such as Macklin Celebrini are rather low, but several interesting forwards should be available once the Habs take to the podium.
Another interesting aspect of the rankings is how the Habs are the only team in the Atlantic Division with a top-10-ranked prospect pool, lending credence to the idea that the team’s rebuild has come at an opportune time.
If you enjoy the rankings posted above, please consider supporting Hockey Prospecting.
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